live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Southern Mississippi

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:31.0
Current RPI:31
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:74
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-931.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Western Kentucky (150.0)SBH67-64W100%0.0
11-15Georgia (140.0)SECA60-62W100%0.0
11-19Sam Houston St. (224.0)SlndA49-61W100%0.0
11-20UC Irvine (125.0)BWN69-65W100%0.0
11-21Liberty (288.0)BSthN56-74W100%0.0
11-27Denver (64.0)WACH61-50W100%0.0
12-1New Mexico St. (55.0)WACA68-60L0%0.0
12-4Arizona (16.0)P12A63-55L0%0.0
12-8Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACA65-55L0%0.0
12-15Grambling (347.0)SWACH93-45W100%0.0
12-18Georgia St. (209.0)CAAA67-69W100%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA59-51L0%0.0
12-28Morehead St. (172.0)OVCA58-94W100%0.0
1-9Rice (324.0)CUSAA52-75W100%0.0
1-12Houston (197.0)CUSAH73-54W100%0.0
1-16Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAA70-74W100%0.0
1-19UAB (144.0)CUSAH74-59W100%0.0
1-23Marshall (208.0)CUSAH102-46W100%0.0
1-26Tulsa (127.0)CUSAA59-62W100%0.0
2-2UAB (144.0)CUSAA75-79W100%0.0
2-6Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA60-58L0%0.0
2-9Memphis (12.0)CUSAH76-89L0%0.0
2-13Tulane (175.0)CUSAH71-60W100%0.0
2-16East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA82-86W100%0.0
2-20Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAH45-39W100%0.0
2-23Memphis (12.0)CUSAA89-73L0%0.0
3-2East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH88-69W100%0.0
3-5Marshall (208.0)CUSAA88-84L0%0.0
3-9Central Florida (103.0)CUSAH70-62W100%0.0
3-14UAB (144.0)CUSAN81-66W100%0.0
3-15Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAN85-67W100%0.0
3-16Memphis (12.0)CUSAN91-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern MississippiCUSA26.3026.3077.4077.4014.4114.41
MemphisCUSA5.395.3987.1087.104.004.00
UABCUSA5.365.3651.7251.720.180.18
MarshallCUSA3.863.8637.9337.93-0.93-0.93
East CarolinaCUSA3.853.8558.3358.330.640.64
Central FloridaCUSA3.813.8162.9662.960.990.99
Texas El PasoCUSA3.783.7860.0060.000.760.76
TulsaCUSA2.322.3253.3353.330.150.15
TulaneCUSA2.292.2958.0658.060.370.37
HoustonCUSA2.272.2762.0762.070.550.55
Southern MethodistCUSA2.252.2546.6746.67-0.15-0.15
RiceCUSA2.192.1914.2914.29-1.57-1.57
New Mexico St.WAC1.761.7668.7568.750.660.66
Louisiana TechWAC1.691.6980.0080.001.011.01
Georgia St.CAA1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DenverWAC1.661.6672.4172.410.740.74
LibertyBSth1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Morehead St.OVC1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
UC IrvineBW1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
ArizonaP121.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
GramblingSWAC1.591.590.000.00-1.59-1.59
Wichita St.MVC1.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
GeorgiaSEC1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB1.561.5657.5857.580.240.24
Oral RobertsSlnd0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
IdahoWAC0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.190.1957.1457.140.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Texas ChristianB120.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.WAC0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Texas San AntonioWAC0.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeSB0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
TroySB0.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
CreightonMVC0.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1714.8114.81-0.12-0.12
HofstraCAA0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
SeattleWAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Utah St.WAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
South FloridaBE0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
UCLAP120.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
OhioMAC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Virginia CommonwealthA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1085.1985.190.070.07
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
HarvardIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
High PointBSth0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RutgersBE0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
PacificBW0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01